July 5, 2005
Out of ideas
In 1899, U.S. Patents Commissioner Charles Duell (allegedly) claimed that “everything that can be invented has been invented.” Turns out he was slightly off, but that isn’t deterring Jonathan Huebner:
Physicist Dr Jonathan Huebner, from the Pentagon’s Naval Air Warfare Centre, last week struck a Duell-esque note, arguing that the number of new ideas per head of population in fact peaked about 130 years ago, around the same time Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. He believes innovation levels are now trailing off at an alarming rate.
By looking at the dates of 7,200 major scientific advances compared with world population, he found that, rather than growing exponentially as populations rose, current levels of innovation equal those in the year 1600. Comparing records of new patents granted in the United States against the country’s population figures also revealed a similar picture. And Huebner claims the human race is hurtling towards the biggest lull in scientific growth for centuries.
“We are approaching the ‘Dark Ages point,’ when the rate of innovation is the same as it was during the Dark Ages,” he said. “We’ll reach that in 2024. Perhaps there is a limit to what technology can achieve.”
And perhaps there isn’t. But at least Huebner is in good company.
Posted by Stephen at 12:00 AM in Science + technology | Permalink | TrackBack (0)
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